I haven’t been as immersed in Tennessee politics these last few months as I was back in the day. But being that today is election day and since a few folks have solicited my opinion, I thought I go ahead and share with the rest of the class.
These are not endorsements, mind you. Just predictions of what I think our political world will look like seven hours or so from now.
Governor Republican Bill Haslam — It says something about the state of our politics that many observers could have (and did) make this prediction accurately in January ‘09. More than two years ago, Haslam made it fairly clear to those paying close attention that he intended to run for governor if former Sen. Bill Frist didn’t. With his executive experience, money and influence within the Republican Party’s upper echelon, he was deemed the favourite from the outset. Not much as changed.
Haslam was able to lock up the big money early. His team defined their candidate through a series of well-done, if substantively empty, television ads and the other contenders had neither the resources nor the ammunition to knock the Haslam train off the rails.
The only surprise in the race has been how little Haslam has pandered to Tennessee’s increasingly conservative Republican primary electorate. Sure, Haslam has checked the right boxes on surveys and said the right things on the stump — but not in any forceful or dramatic fashion. In 2006, Bob Corker seemed to constantly and consistently genuflect at the altar of ideological conservatism to prove his bona fides against Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant. Haslam just hasn’t against Ramsey and Wamp and, for whatever reason, it hasn’t hurt him that much.
Like 2006, the conservatives are split. Wamp will take the majority of the evangelical “Huckabee” vote while Ramsey will snag those who are more concerned with the size and scope of government AKA “The Tea Party” crowd. Each candidate seems to have a fatal flaw in capturing the voters of the other. Ramsey’s inability to speak about his faith in the same effusive manner as Wamp has cost him opportunities with fundamentalist Christians just as Wamp’s vote for TARP has cost him with the fiscal and constitutional conservatives.
With the Right well-divided, Haslam should cruise to victory. He’ll fall short of Corker’s 48% in ‘06 — but not by much. Wamp and Ramsey will split the rest more or less evenly while YouTube sensation Basil Marceaux will not clear 2% in the polls.
TN-05 Republican CeCe Heil — The chance of any of the 11 candidates in this race ending up beating Rep. Jim Cooper in the fall are slim-to-none. Yes, the district consists of conservative parts of Davidson County one does not think of a “Nashville” like Goodletsville, Madison, and Joelton as well as Republican enclaves in Wilson and Cheatham counties. But, the fact is that Jim Cooper is a moderate Democrat and well-suited to the district. Cooper went down in defeat to Fred Thompson in the ‘94 Senate race during a similar national conservative wave. He knows what to look for and he’s not likely to lose again.
That said, someone has to be the sacrificial lamb and my bet is CeCe Heil. The smart money, from what I can tell, is still on Jeff Hartline who has run a professional campaign (minus a few misteps) with the help of his son, Wes, and Bill Hobbs. However, in a sea of conservative men, CeCe stands out. She has got the evangelical thing happening for her as well as the blessing of Sarah Palin. Her campaign got a late start but in this messy field I think, deservedly or not, Heil will attract a slim plurality.
TN-03 Republican Robin Smith — While elements of the Tim Gobble and Van Irion campaigns have been interesting, this is clearly a two (wo)man race. Robin Smith has the grassroots and the respect of the party faithful for presiding over the Republican takeover of the state legislature and Chuck Fleischmann has a bank account and one very motivated general consultant. Chip Saltsman is good, but not that good. With a better proxy, it might have been different. Robin Smith takes this relatively easily.
TN-06 Republican Lou Ann Zelenik — While I’m as big a Passenger 57 fan as the next guy, this time I’m not betting on Black. The conventional wisdom still has state Sen. Diane Black as the favorite but Zelenik has clearly closed the gap evidenced by Black’s full blown television and direct mail assault on the tea party favorite.
While in the Governor’s race you have two conservatives splitting the vote leaving the plurality to a moderate, in this race what you have is two insiders splitting the vote and giving the prize to an “outsider.”
Just two years removed from an embarrassing loss to Rep. Joe Carr in ’08, Zelenik has learned some lessons and polished her game. She has done everything in her power to become the quintessential Palinite tea party candidate — and she has succeeded.
I have stopped in at a few political picnics and rallies this summer and one thing is clear: prospective mosque constructions both in Murfreesboro and at Ground Zero have rekindled the post 9/11 bloodlust of the Republican base in a big way. Lou Ann Zelenik got out in front of this anti-Muslim wave early and left her opponents flat-footed.
George Wallace (at the time a racial moderate) famously said after losing a race early in his career to a rabid segregationist that he was “out-n***ered.” Zelenik has done something similar to her opponents in this campaign and she will reap the “benefits” today.
Also, I have not bought the conventional wisdom that Jim Tracy campaign is dead in the water. He’ll do better than expected — but it won’t be enough. This will be a very close three-way race, but I think Zelenik takes it.
TN-08 Republican Ron Kirkland — This one has been a doozy and I’m not even sure who the favorite is according to the “insiders.” Flinn has spent a boatload of money but at the end of the day he is still a rich guy from Memphis running in a predominately rural district. I don’t see how you overcome that. Stephen Fincher’s star was on the rise back when he was the great Republican hope against John Tanner but Flinn, Kirkland and Kirkland’s brother’s IE campaign has slowly chipped away at that Frog Jump shine. Kirkland (and his bro) take this one.
TN-09 Democrat Steve Cohen — One day a charismatic, serious and qualified Black candidate will come along, exploit the racial makeup of the district and take this seat away from Rep. Steve Cohen. However, that day is not today. Cohen by a good margin — although less than it should be.
Senate 21 Democrat Jeff Yarbro — The young progressive leader has done the work and cobbled together a coalition comprised of grassroots activists, establishment operators and even a few Republicans. Had Jim Kyle stayed in the governor’s race, the result might be different. Unfortunately for Sen. Douglas Henry, the active Republican race for governor has ensured that much of his base will be MIA in the primary. My bet is tomorrow the Republican Party will have wished they had recruited a candidate for this race. Yarbro wins.
Senate 21 Republican Steve Dickerson — Not really sure about this one. Apparently, the Ron Paul crew as well as the establishment are behind Dickerson despite the fact that Chesser is a former county Libertarian party chair and a more interesting candidate. Going with the conventional wisdom but perplexed by it.
Senate 07 Republican Stacey Campfield — He doesn’t raise much money but he works like hell. If Rep. Stacey Campfield’s moderate and establishment opposition had united behind one candidate he would have been in trouble. But it doesn’t look like they did. Four more years of Campfield.
Senate 17 Republican Mae Beavers — Susan Lynn got a raw deal when Sen. Mae Beavers decided at the eleventh hour to abandon her bid for Wilson County Mayor and run for re-election to her seat. A lesser woman than Lynn would have tucked tail and ran back to her house seat and run for re-election instead. Susan Lynn didn’t do that and for that she should be remembered. Lynn will do very well but ultimately she will come up short. Incumbency is incumbency. To beat an incumbent, you have to have a reason you can sell. Lynn has a good reason but it isn’t one easily peddled. The Beav takes it.
Senate 17 Democrat George McDonald — All but forgotten admid the blood feud on the other side of the aisle, this contest actually has three very interesting and very legitimate candidates. Sam Hatcher, a newspaper publisher, is the favorite among establishment types and probably the “smart money” favorite to win. Aubrey Givens, who speaks very enthusiastically and fashions himself a champion of the downtrodden, ran against Bob Rochelle in the 2006 primary and carries the name recognition from that race with him. The third candidate is George McDonald, an accomplished farmer well-known in the six less cosmopolitan counties of the district.
I’m flying more or less blind on this one but I’m gonna say McDonald squeaks by. He’ll lose Wilson County (possibly coming in third) but he’ll make up the difference in the rural counties and, in the process, give the Democratic Party at least an outside shot at victory in November.
